Notice that I said he will get reelected, not that I want the man to. I’m going to attempt to explain why I think this will happen, without delving too far into the political muck and mire.
People across the United States have their reasons for supporting Donald Trump and for vilifying him (usually very set reasons, as I’ll explore). I do not have to remind anyone of the stark divide between the parties, both the formal one of Democrat and Republican, and the more ideological ones of American opinion.
But to get right to the point: Trump will get reelected to the office of President because that is the default result. It happened in the election of 2016, and few if any have learned from that result. There was a reason the man was elected three years ago (call that a glorious victory, call that a sham, whatever you like). Behavior hasn’t changed on either side, so there will be the same result. People are still yelling their adamant opinions, rather than engaging in civil conversation. No one is standing in the other’s shoes.
There are many who are still dumbfounded that this businessman-turned-reality-TV-star-turned-politician was elected in the first place. They can not get into the minds of those who actually voted for him (some actually did, and with firm resolve to). While the latter is usually less trenchant overall, they have the same confidence in their political priorities.
Some have suggested that there will be a “record defeat” of Trump in 2020 (see Jay-Z on David Letterman’s My Next Guest Needs No Introduction). These same celebrity-types were declaring Hillary Clinton’s victory leading up to election day. Perhaps this was wishful thinking more than true belief in an outcome.
Regardless, my theory is that the voting map will look very – perhaps eerily – similar to the last election.
I did come across a fairly surprising stat, at least surprising to me. DISCLAIMER: I am fairly uninvolved in political goings-on. I try my best to stay up to date on current events, but I have not studied politics itself much at all. Anyway, I was surprised to find that less than half of all US Presidents were elected for a second term (https://www.cnn.com/2012/11/09/politics/btn-second-term-presidents/index.html).
Still, I believe that the political climate of the United States has changed little over the last few years. This is in spite of Trump’s continual, and most recent, antics. A very similar result will therefore occur.
As a side-theory, it also seems to me that Joe Biden will far and away be the choice for Democratic nominee. This is probably a shock to no one, but the overcrowded Democratic field seems to me a waste of time for many.
If I’m wrong on both fronts, or just one (both seems highly unlikely), I’ll own up to it. Here it is in writing.